Union Santa Fe 2–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Union Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CDJU Gualeguaychu

5/17/2018

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Santa Fe65%

×Draw24%

CDJU Gualeguaychu11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchCDJU Gualeguaychu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.50

Union Santa Fe

1.61

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.50

Union Santa Fe creates 222% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.00

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

CDJU Gualeguaychu

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

89%

Union Santa Fe or CDJU Gualeguaychu

76%

Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu

35%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

36%

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

80%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

48%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

22%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

39%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

9%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

85%

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.00 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

65%

level

24%

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

11%

Union Santa Fe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff