Union Santa Fe 0–1 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Argentinos JRS

N. Oroz 6'

2/8/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 4Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Union Santa Fe40%

×Draw31%

Argentinos JRS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.88

Union Santa Fe

1.09

Argentinos JRS

0.88

Union Santa Fe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 121 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.14

Argentinos JRS

0.83

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.93

Argentinos JRS

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

71%

Union Santa Fe or Argentinos JRS

69%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

60%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

16%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

66%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

30%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

10%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

59%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

22%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

58%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 121 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.14 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Argentinos JRS attack 0.83 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

40%

level

31%

Argentinos JRS scores more

29%

Union Santa Fe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Tagliamonte

Union Santa Fe · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

N. Oroz↳ J. Herrera

46'

M. Martinez← M. Pitton

59'

M. Del Blanco← B. Pitton

59'

L. Verde← F. Fragapane

59'

L. Gamba← J. Palacios

62'

C. Corvalan

65'

J. Domina← A. Colazo

68'

L. Gomez← N. Oroz

68'

I. Sosa← T. Molina

69'

F. Fattori

77'

M. Martinez

79'

S. Rodriguez← J. Herrera

85'

R. Vega← F. Alvarez

85'

A. Gamarra← A. Lescano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionArgentinos

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots12

4Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target7

7Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

471Total Passes485

365Accurate Passes376

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1