Unión Santa Fe Res. 0–2 Huracán Res.

Unión Santa Fe Res.

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Huracán Res.

8/22/2025

Reserve League · 2nd Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Unión Santa Fe Res.36%

×Draw28%

Huracán Res.35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Santa Fe Res.Expected goals in this matchHuracán Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.15

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1.17

Huracán Res.

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

1.15

creates per match

1.37

0.92

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Unión Santa Fe Res.

1.15

Huracán Res.

1.37

allows per match

Unión Santa Fe Res.

0.92

Huracán Res.

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Santa Fe Res.+0.00on par

Huracán Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Santa Fe Res. ↓

Huracán Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Unión Santa Fe Res. or draw

65%

Unión Santa Fe Res. or Huracán Res.

72%

Draw or Huracán Res.

64%

Winning margin

Unión Santa Fe Res. wins by 2+

15%

Huracán Res. wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Unión Santa Fe Res. 1+ goals

69%

Unión Santa Fe Res. 2+ goals

33%

Unión Santa Fe Res. 3+ goals

11%

Huracán Res. 1+ goals

68%

Huracán Res. 2+ goals

32%

Huracán Res. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Unión Santa Fe Res. (draw refunded)

51%

Huracán Res. (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Santa Fe Res. at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Huracán Res. away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Santa Fe Res. attack 1.15 + Huracán Res. defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Huracán Res. attack 1.37 + Unión Santa Fe Res. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Unión Santa Fe Res. scores more

36%

level

28%

Huracán Res. scores more

35%

Unión Santa Fe Res. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Unión Santa Fe Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff