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Union Sandersdorf vs Wacker Nordhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
3/3/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Union Sandersdorf55%
×Draw22%
Wacker Nordhausen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
1.89
Wacker Nordhausen
1.11

Union Sandersdorf creates 70% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
Wacker Nordhausen
1.03

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
Wacker Nordhausen
2.20

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
78%
Union Sandersdorf or Wacker Nordhausen
78%
Draw or Wacker Nordhausen
45%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
32%
Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
85%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
56%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
29%
Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
67%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
30%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
71%
Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
55%
level
22%
Wacker Nordhausen scores more
22%

Union Sandersdorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sandersdorf vs Wacker Nordhausen

Union Sandersdorf beat Wacker Nordhausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf in Sandersdorf-Brehna.