Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Sandersdorf vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
4/26/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 25Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Sandersdorf72%
×Draw16%
Motor Marienberg12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
2.59
Motor Marienberg
0.96

Union Sandersdorf creates 170% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
88%
Union Sandersdorf or Motor Marienberg
84%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
28%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
50%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
92%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
73%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
47%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
62%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
25%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
86%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.59

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
72%
level
16%
Motor Marienberg scores more
12%

Union Sandersdorf at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sandersdorf vs Motor Marienberg

Union Sandersdorf beat Motor Marienberg 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf in Sandersdorf-Brehna.