Union Sandersdorf vs International Leipzig

Union Sandersdorf

CANC

12:00

International Leipzig

5/29/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 35Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Union Sandersdorf55%

×Draw21%

International Leipzig23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SandersdorfExpected goals in this matchInternational Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.27

Union Sandersdorf

2.06

International Leipzig

1.27

Union Sandersdorf creates 62% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 22 away

1.58

creates per match

1.36

1.19

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf

1.58

International Leipzig

1.36

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf

1.19

International Leipzig

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

International Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw

77%

Union Sandersdorf or International Leipzig

79%

Draw or International Leipzig

45%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+

33%

International Leipzig wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals

87%

Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals

61%

Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals

34%

International Leipzig 1+ goals

72%

International Leipzig 2+ goals

36%

International Leipzig 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)

70%

International Leipzig (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.06

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more

55%

level

21%

International Leipzig scores more

23%

Union Sandersdorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff