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Union Sandersdorf vs FC Grimma — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Grimma
FC Grimma
5/3/2026Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 27Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Union Sandersdorf51%
×Draw23%
FC Grimma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
1.83
FC Grimma
1.25

Union Sandersdorf creates 46% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 82 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
FC Grimma
1.30

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
FC Grimma
2.09

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
FC Grimma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

FC Grimma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
74%
Union Sandersdorf or FC Grimma
77%
Draw or FC Grimma
49%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
28%
FC Grimma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
28%
FC Grimma 1+ goals
71%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
36%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
66%
FC Grimma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

FC Grimma away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.09 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + FC Grimma defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Grimma attack 1.30 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
51%
level
23%
FC Grimma scores more
26%

Union Sandersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sandersdorf vs FC Grimma

Union Sandersdorf beat FC Grimma 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf in Sandersdorf-Brehna.