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Union Sandersdorf vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Union Sandersdorf
Union Sandersdorf
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
11/22/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Union Sandersdorf42%
×Draw24%
Bischofswerdaer FV33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.38

Union Sandersdorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 77 away

creates per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.58
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

Union Sandersdorf
1.19
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sandersdorf ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Sandersdorf or draw
67%
Union Sandersdorf or Bischofswerdaer FV
76%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
58%

Winning margin

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+
21%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals
79%
Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals
47%
Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals
21%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
75%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
40%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)
56%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sandersdorf at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.58 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Sandersdorf scores more
42%
level
24%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
33%

Union Sandersdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Sandersdorf vs Bischofswerdaer FV

Union Sandersdorf beat Bischofswerdaer FV 5-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Sandersdorf in Sandersdorf-Brehna.