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Union Rohrbach Berg vs Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
FT
3 – 1
Bad Ischl
Bad Ischl
10/12/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 11Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Rohrbach Berg48%
×Draw21%
Bad Ischl31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Rohrbach Berg
2.04
Bad Ischl
1.61

Union Rohrbach Berg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.47
Bad Ischl
1.43

allows per match

Union Rohrbach Berg
1.80
Bad Ischl
2.62

finishing

Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par
Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Rohrbach Berg ↓

Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Union Rohrbach Berg or draw
69%
Union Rohrbach Berg or Bad Ischl
79%
Draw or Bad Ischl
52%

Winning margin

Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
27%
Bad Ischl wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
87%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
60%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
33%
Bad Ischl 1+ goals
80%
Bad Ischl 2+ goals
48%
Bad Ischl 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
61%
Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Rohrbach Berg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Bad Ischl away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 1.47 + Bad Ischl defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bad Ischl attack 1.43 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
48%
level
21%
Bad Ischl scores more
31%

Union Rohrbach Berg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Rohrbach Berg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Rohrbach Berg 3–1 Bad Ischl

Union Rohrbach Berg beat Bad Ischl 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena Rohrbach-Berg in Rohrbach.