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Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
FT
1 – 0
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
9/11/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Weinland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit33%
×Draw23%
Mettersdorf44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.56
Mettersdorf
1.83

Mettersdorf creates 17% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.81
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.80
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union RB Weinland Gamlit ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or draw
56%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit or Mettersdorf
77%
Draw or Mettersdorf
67%

Winning margin

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
16%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
79%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
46%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
21%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
43%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.80 · 88 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.81 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
33%
level
23%
Mettersdorf scores more
44%

Mettersdorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Mettersdorf

Union RB Weinland Gamlit beat Mettersdorf 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Weinland-Stadion in Gamlitz.