Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2–1 Frauental

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

FT

2 – 1

Frauental

4/28/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Weinland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit41%

×Draw23%

Frauental36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union RB Weinland GamlitExpected goals in this matchFrauental

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.60

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.73

Frauental

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 60 away

1.81

creates per match

1.40

1.80

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.81

Frauental

1.40

allows per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.80

Frauental

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union RB Weinland Gamlit ↓

Frauental →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or draw

64%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or Frauental

77%

Draw or Frauental

59%

Winning margin

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+

21%

Frauental wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals

82%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals

52%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals

25%

Frauental 1+ goals

80%

Frauental 2+ goals

47%

Frauental 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)

54%

Frauental (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.80 · 88 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.81 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Frauental attack 1.40 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more

41%

level

23%

Frauental scores more

36%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff