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Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
11/8/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 15Weinland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit52%
×Draw21%
Bruck an der Mur28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.19
Bruck an der Mur
1.56

Union RB Weinland Gamlit creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 74 away

creates per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.81
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.80
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union RB Weinland Gamlit ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union RB Weinland Gamlit or draw
72%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit or Bruck an der Mur
79%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
48%

Winning margin

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
31%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
89%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
64%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
37%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
79%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
46%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
65%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.80 · 88 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.81 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.19

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
52%
level
21%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
28%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union RB Weinland Gamlit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union RB Weinland Gamlit vs Bruck an der Mur

Union RB Weinland Gamlit and Bruck an der Mur drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Weinland-Stadion in Gamlitz.