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Union Perg vs Wels — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
FT
2 – 1
Wels
Wels
10/13/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 11WIMTECH-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Perg74%
×Draw15%
Wels11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
2.70
Wels
0.93

Union Perg creates 190% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Wels
0.59

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Wels
3.72

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
89%
Union Perg or Wels
85%
Draw or Wels
26%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
53%
Wels wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
93%
Union Perg 2+ goals
75%
Union Perg 3+ goals
50%
Wels 1+ goals
61%
Wels 2+ goals
24%
Wels 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
87%
Wels (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.70

Wels attack 0.59 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Union Perg scores more
74%
level
15%
Wels scores more
11%

Union Perg at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Perg vs Wels

Union Perg beat Wels 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at WIMTECH-Arena Perg in Perg.