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Union Perg vs Union Rohrbach Berg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Union Rohrbach Berg
Union Rohrbach Berg
5/1/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 24Forstenlechner Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Perg59%
×Draw22%
Union Rohrbach Berg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
1.90
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.99

Union Perg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Union Rohrbach Berg
0.73

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Union Rohrbach Berg
2.13

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Union Rohrbach Berg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Union Rohrbach Berg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
81%
Union Perg or Union Rohrbach Berg
78%
Draw or Union Rohrbach Berg
41%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
34%
Union Rohrbach Berg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
85%
Union Perg 2+ goals
56%
Union Perg 3+ goals
29%
Union Rohrbach Berg 1+ goals
63%
Union Rohrbach Berg 2+ goals
26%
Union Rohrbach Berg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
75%
Union Rohrbach Berg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Union Rohrbach Berg away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Union Rohrbach Berg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Union Rohrbach Berg attack 0.73 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Perg scores more
59%
level
22%
Union Rohrbach Berg scores more
19%

Union Perg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Perg 3 – 0 Union Rohrbach Berg

Union Perg beat Union Rohrbach Berg 3-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Forstenlechner Arena Perg in Perg.