Union Perg 0–2 SV Wallern: Result & Stats

Union Perg

FT

0 – 2

SV Wallern

9/25/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 8abd-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Union Perg40%

×Draw23%

SV Wallern37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union PergExpected goals in this matchSV Wallern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.58

Union Perg

1.65

SV Wallern

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 43 away

1.67

creates per match

1.91

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Union Perg

1.67

SV Wallern

1.91

allows per match

Union Perg

1.26

SV Wallern

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par

SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

SV Wallern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw

63%

Union Perg or SV Wallern

77%

Draw or SV Wallern

60%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+

20%

SV Wallern wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals

81%

Union Perg 2+ goals

49%

Union Perg 3+ goals

23%

SV Wallern 1+ goals

79%

SV Wallern 2+ goals

47%

SV Wallern 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)

52%

SV Wallern (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Perg scores more

40%

level

23%

SV Wallern scores more

37%

Union Perg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff