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SV Wallern vs Union Perg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
CANC
14:30
Union Perg
Union Perg
4/24/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SV Wallern63%
×Draw18%
Union Perg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.49
Union Perg
1.29

SV Wallern creates 93% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 87 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Union Perg
1.25

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Union Perg
1.89

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Union Perg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
81%
SV Wallern or Union Perg
82%
Draw or Union Perg
37%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
42%
Union Perg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
92%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
71%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
45%
Union Perg 1+ goals
72%
Union Perg 2+ goals
37%
Union Perg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
77%
Union Perg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.49

Union Perg attack 1.25 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SV Wallern scores more
63%
level
18%
Union Perg scores more
19%

SV Wallern at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Wallern face Union Perg (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with SV Wallern hosting Union Perg. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Wallern host Union Perg at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.