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Union Perg vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
FT
1 – 0
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
4/13/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22WIMTECH-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Union Perg50%
×Draw23%
St. Valentin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
1.85
St. Valentin
1.33

Union Perg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
72%
Union Perg or St. Valentin
77%
Draw or St. Valentin
50%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
28%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
84%
Union Perg 2+ goals
55%
Union Perg 3+ goals
28%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
74%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
38%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
64%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.85

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Perg scores more
50%
level
23%
St. Valentin scores more
28%

Union Perg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Perg vs St. Valentin

Union Perg beat St. Valentin 1-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at WIMTECH-Arena Perg in Perg.