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Union Perg vs Gmunden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gmunden
Gmunden
3/15/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 17Forstenlechner Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Perg55%
×Draw21%
Gmunden24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
2.13
Gmunden
1.36

Union Perg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Gmunden
1.47

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Gmunden
2.60

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Gmunden+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Gmunden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
76%
Union Perg or Gmunden
79%
Draw or Gmunden
45%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
33%
Gmunden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
88%
Union Perg 2+ goals
63%
Union Perg 3+ goals
35%
Gmunden 1+ goals
74%
Gmunden 2+ goals
39%
Gmunden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
69%
Gmunden (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Gmunden away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Gmunden defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gmunden attack 1.47 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Union Perg scores more
55%
level
21%
Gmunden scores more
24%

Union Perg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Perg 4–0 Gmunden

Union Perg beat Gmunden 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Forstenlechner Arena Perg in Perg.