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Union Perg vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
FT
2 – 0
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
3/5/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16WIMTECH-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Perg62%
×Draw19%
Donau Linz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
2.27
Donau Linz
1.15

Union Perg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
82%
Union Perg or Donau Linz
81%
Draw or Donau Linz
38%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
40%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
90%
Union Perg 2+ goals
66%
Union Perg 3+ goals
39%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
68%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
32%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
77%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.27

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Perg scores more
62%
level
19%
Donau Linz scores more
18%

Union Perg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Union Perg 2–0 Donau Linz

Union Perg beat Donau Linz 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at WIMTECH-Arena Perg in Perg.