Union Perg 3–0 Bad Schallerbach: Result & Stats

Union Perg

FT

3 – 0

Bad Schallerbach

10/4/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 10WIMTECH-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Union Perg46%

×Draw23%

Bad Schallerbach30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union PergExpected goals in this matchBad Schallerbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.37

Union Perg

1.75

Bad Schallerbach

1.37

Union Perg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.67

creates per match

1.48

1.26

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Union Perg

1.67

Bad Schallerbach

1.48

allows per match

Union Perg

1.26

Bad Schallerbach

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Bad Schallerbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw

70%

Union Perg or Bad Schallerbach

77%

Draw or Bad Schallerbach

54%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+

25%

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals

83%

Union Perg 2+ goals

52%

Union Perg 3+ goals

25%

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals

75%

Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals

40%

Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)

61%

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Perg scores more

46%

level

23%

Bad Schallerbach scores more

30%

Union Perg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff