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Union Omaha vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Union Omaha
Union Omaha
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
4/30/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 4Werner Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Union Omaha47%
×Draw25%
Northern Colorado28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Omaha
1.56
Northern Colorado
1.13

Union Omaha creates 38% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 43 away

creates per match

Union Omaha
1.96
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Union Omaha
1.00
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Union Omaha+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Omaha ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union Omaha or draw
72%
Union Omaha or Northern Colorado
75%
Draw or Northern Colorado
53%

Winning margin

Union Omaha wins by 2+
24%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Omaha 1+ goals
79%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
46%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
21%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
68%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
31%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Omaha (draw refunded)
63%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Omaha at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.00 · 92 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Omaha attack 1.96 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Union Omaha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Omaha scores more
47%
level
25%
Northern Colorado scores more
28%

Union Omaha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Omaha vs Northern Colorado

Union Omaha beat Northern Colorado 3-2 in USL League One on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Werner Park in Papillion, Nebraska.