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Northern Colorado vs Union Omaha — USL League One Cup 2024

Northern Colorado
Northern Coloradoadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
9/12/2024USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Semi-finals4Rivers Equipment Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Northern Colorado66%
×Draw19%
Union Omaha15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
2.31
Union Omaha
1.00

Northern Colorado creates 131% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
2.75
Union Omaha
1.00

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.00
Union Omaha
1.88

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
85%
Northern Colorado or Union Omaha
81%
Draw or Union Omaha
34%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
43%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
90%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
67%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
40%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
63%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
26%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
82%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 2.75 + Union Omaha defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.31

Union Omaha attack 1.00 + Northern Colorado defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
66%
level
19%
Union Omaha scores more
15%

Northern Colorado at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One Cup: Northern Colorado 2–0 Union Omaha

Northern Colorado beat Union Omaha 2-0 in USL League One Cup on September 12, 2024.

The match was played at 4Rivers Equipment Stadium in Windsor, Colorado.