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Union Omaha vs Northern Colorado — US Open Cup 2018

Union Omaha
Union Omahaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
5/12/2022US Open CupUS Open Cup · Round of 32Caniglia Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Union Omaha56%
×Draw24%
Northern Colorado19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Omaha
1.67
Northern Colorado
0.86

Union Omaha creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Union Omaha
2.00
Northern Colorado
1.33

allows per match

Union Omaha
0.40
Northern Colorado
1.33

finishing

Union Omaha+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Omaha ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Union Omaha or draw
81%
Union Omaha or Northern Colorado
76%
Draw or Northern Colorado
44%

Winning margin

Union Omaha wins by 2+
31%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Omaha 1+ goals
81%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
50%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
23%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
58%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
21%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Union Omaha (draw refunded)
75%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Omaha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Omaha attack 2.00 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + Union Omaha defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Union Omaha scores more
56%
level
24%
Northern Colorado scores more
19%

Union Omaha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Union Omaha 2–0 Northern Colorado

Union Omaha beat Northern Colorado 2-0 in US Open Cup on May 12, 2022.

The match was played at Caniglia Field in Omaha.