Union Omaha 0–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Union Omaha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chattanooga Red Wolves

7/28/2024

USL League One · Round 8Werner Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Union Omaha53%

×Draw23%

Chattanooga Red Wolves24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union OmahaExpected goals in this matchChattanooga Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.10

Union Omaha

1.77

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.10

Union Omaha creates 61% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 100 away

1.96

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Union Omaha

1.96

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.20

allows per match

Union Omaha

1.00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Omaha+0.00on par

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Omaha ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union Omaha or draw

76%

Union Omaha or Chattanooga Red Wolves

77%

Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves

47%

Winning margin

Union Omaha wins by 2+

29%

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Omaha 1+ goals

83%

Union Omaha 2+ goals

53%

Union Omaha 3+ goals

26%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

67%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

30%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Union Omaha (draw refunded)

69%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Omaha at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.00 · 92 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Omaha attack 1.96 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Union Omaha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Omaha scores more

53%

level

23%

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

24%

Union Omaha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff