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Union Nettetal vs Straelen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Straelen
Straelen
11/10/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 14Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Union Nettetal30%
×Draw23%
Straelen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
1.42
Straelen
1.84

Straelen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 8 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
Straelen
2.13

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
Straelen
1.13

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
Straelen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

Straelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
53%
Union Nettetal or Straelen
77%
Draw or Straelen
70%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
13%
Straelen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
76%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
41%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
17%
Straelen 1+ goals
84%
Straelen 2+ goals
55%
Straelen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
39%
Straelen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

Straelen away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + Straelen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Straelen attack 2.13 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
30%
level
23%
Straelen scores more
47%

Straelen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Nettetal 1–1 Straelen

Union Nettetal and Straelen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn in Nettetal.