Union Nettetal 0–2 SSVg Velbert: Result & Stats

Union Nettetal

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SSVg Velbert

11/29/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Union Nettetal30%

×Draw23%

SSVg Velbert47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union NettetalExpected goals in this matchSSVg Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.75

Union Nettetal

1.36

SSVg Velbert

1.75

SSVg Velbert creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

1.70

creates per match

1.95

1.56

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Union Nettetal

1.70

SSVg Velbert

1.95

allows per match

Union Nettetal

1.56

SSVg Velbert

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

SSVg Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw

53%

Union Nettetal or SSVg Velbert

77%

Draw or SSVg Velbert

70%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

13%

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

74%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

39%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

16%

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

83%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

52%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

39%

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + SSVg Velbert defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

SSVg Velbert attack 1.95 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Nettetal scores more

30%

level

23%

SSVg Velbert scores more

47%

SSVg Velbert at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff