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Union Nettetal vs SC St. Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
4/19/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Union Nettetal36%
×Draw23%
SC St. Tönis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
1.63
SC St. Tönis
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 70 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
SC St. Tönis
1.97

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
SC St. Tönis
1.56

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

SC St. Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
58%
Union Nettetal or SC St. Tönis
77%
Draw or SC St. Tönis
64%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
18%
SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
80%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
48%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
22%
SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
83%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
53%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
46%
SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
36%
level
23%
SC St. Tönis scores more
42%

SC St. Tönis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Union Nettetal 1–3 SC St. Tönis

SC St. Tönis beat Union Nettetal 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn in Nettetal.