Union Nettetal 2–1 MSV Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

Union Nettetal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

MSV Düsseldorf

5/21/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 40Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Union Nettetal39%

×Draw22%

MSV Düsseldorf39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union NettetalExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.78

Union Nettetal

1.77

MSV Düsseldorf

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 20 away

1.70

creates per match

2.00

1.56

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Union Nettetal

1.70

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

Union Nettetal

1.56

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw

61%

Union Nettetal or MSV Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

61%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

20%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

83%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

53%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

26%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

83%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

53%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

50%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Nettetal scores more

39%

level

22%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

39%

Union Nettetal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Nettetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff