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Union Nettetal vs FC Bocholt — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Union Nettetal
Union Nettetal
CANC
14:15
FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
1/31/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Union Nettetal21%
×Draw20%
FC Bocholt59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Nettetal
1.32
FC Bocholt
2.30

FC Bocholt creates 74% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Union Nettetal
1.70
FC Bocholt
3.05

allows per match

Union Nettetal
1.56
FC Bocholt
0.95

finishing

Union Nettetal+0.00on par
FC Bocholt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Nettetal ↓

FC Bocholt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Union Nettetal or draw
41%
Union Nettetal or FC Bocholt
80%
Draw or FC Bocholt
79%

Winning margin

Union Nettetal wins by 2+
9%
FC Bocholt wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Union Nettetal 1+ goals
73%
Union Nettetal 2+ goals
38%
Union Nettetal 3+ goals
15%
FC Bocholt 1+ goals
90%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
67%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)
26%
FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Nettetal at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.56 · 77 matches

FC Bocholt away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Nettetal attack 1.70 + FC Bocholt defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Bocholt attack 3.05 + Union Nettetal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Nettetal scores more
21%
level
20%
FC Bocholt scores more
59%

FC Bocholt at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union Nettetal host FC Bocholt

January 31, 2021: Union Nettetal take on FC Bocholt in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union Nettetal host FC Bocholt at Christian-Rötzel-Kampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.