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Union Namur vs Jette — League #148 2026

Union Namur
Union Namur
FT
4 – 1
Jette
Jette
2/4/2023League #148League #148 · ACFF - 17Stade Communal des Bas-Prés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Namur62%
×Draw17%
Jette21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Namur
3.00
Jette
1.75

Union Namur creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Union Namur
4.00
Jette
2.00

allows per match

Union Namur
1.50
Jette
2.00

finishing

Union Namur+0.00on par
Jette+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Namur ↓

Jette →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Union Namur or draw
79%
Union Namur or Jette
83%
Draw or Jette
38%

Winning margin

Union Namur wins by 2+
43%
Jette wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Namur 1+ goals
95%
Union Namur 2+ goals
79%
Union Namur 3+ goals
56%
Jette 1+ goals
83%
Jette 2+ goals
52%
Jette 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Union Namur (draw refunded)
75%
Jette (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Namur at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Jette away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Namur attack 4.00 + Jette defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Jette attack 2.00 + Union Namur defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Namur scores more
62%
level
17%
Jette scores more
21%

Union Namur at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Namur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Namur vs Jette

Union Namur beat Jette 4-1 in League #148 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Communal des Bas-Prés in Namur.