Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Namur vs Acren-Lessines — League #148 2026

Union Namur
Union Namur
FT
3 – 2
Acren-Lessines
Acren-Lessines
8/24/2019League #148League #148 · ACFF - 1Stade Communal des Bas-Prés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Namur64%
×Draw16%
Acren-Lessines20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Namur
3.40
Acren-Lessines
1.95

Union Namur creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Union Namur
4.00
Acren-Lessines
2.40

allows per match

Union Namur
1.50
Acren-Lessines
2.80

finishing

Union Namur+0.00on par
Acren-Lessines+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Namur ↓

Acren-Lessines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Union Namur or draw
80%
Union Namur or Acren-Lessines
84%
Draw or Acren-Lessines
36%

Winning margin

Union Namur wins by 2+
45%
Acren-Lessines wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Namur 1+ goals
96%
Union Namur 2+ goals
84%
Union Namur 3+ goals
64%
Acren-Lessines 1+ goals
86%
Acren-Lessines 2+ goals
58%
Acren-Lessines 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Union Namur (draw refunded)
76%
Acren-Lessines (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Namur at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Acren-Lessines away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Namur attack 4.00 + Acren-Lessines defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.40

Acren-Lessines attack 2.40 + Union Namur defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Union Namur scores more
64%
level
16%
Acren-Lessines scores more
20%

Union Namur at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Union Namur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #148: Union Namur 3–2 Acren-Lessines

Union Namur beat Acren-Lessines 3-2 in League #148 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Communal des Bas-Prés in Namur.