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Unión Molinense vs Yeclano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yeclano II
Yeclano II
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unión Molinense62%
×Draw23%
Yeclano II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.73
Yeclano II
0.72

Unión Molinense creates 140% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Yeclano II
0.53

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Yeclano II
1.59

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Yeclano II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Yeclano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
85%
Unión Molinense or Yeclano II
77%
Draw or Yeclano II
38%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
35%
Yeclano II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
82%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
52%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
25%
Yeclano II 1+ goals
51%
Yeclano II 2+ goals
16%
Yeclano II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
80%
Yeclano II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Yeclano II away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Yeclano II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yeclano II attack 0.53 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
62%
level
23%
Yeclano II scores more
15%

Unión Molinense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs Yeclano II

Unión Molinense beat Yeclano II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.