Unión Molinense 0–1 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Unión Molinense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unión Molinense46%

×Draw26%

UCAM Murcia II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión MolinenseExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

Unión Molinense

1.50

UCAM Murcia II

1.11

Unión Molinense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 110 away

1.87

creates per match

1.33

0.90

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Unión Molinense

1.87

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Unión Molinense

0.90

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw

72%

Unión Molinense or UCAM Murcia II

74%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

54%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

23%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

78%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

44%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

19%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

67%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

30%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

62%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unión Molinense scores more

46%

level

26%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

28%

Unión Molinense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Unión Molinense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.

Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs UCAM Murcia II