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Unión Molinense vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
11/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Unión Molinense48%
×Draw26%
Racing Murcia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.47
Racing Murcia
1.01

Unión Molinense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
74%
Unión Molinense or Racing Murcia
74%
Draw or Racing Murcia
52%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
24%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
77%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
43%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
18%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
64%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
27%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
65%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
48%
level
26%
Racing Murcia scores more
26%

Unión Molinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs Racing Murcia

Racing Murcia beat Unión Molinense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.