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Unión Molinense vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Unión Molinense68%
×Draw19%
Plus Ultra13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
2.21
Plus Ultra
0.84

Unión Molinense creates 163% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 63 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
87%
Unión Molinense or Plus Ultra
81%
Draw or Plus Ultra
32%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
44%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
89%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
65%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
38%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
57%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
21%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
84%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.21

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
68%
level
19%
Plus Ultra scores more
13%

Unión Molinense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unión Molinense 6 – 1 Plus Ultra

Unión Molinense beat Plus Ultra 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.