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Unión Molinense vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Montecasillas
Montecasillas
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unión Molinense72%
×Draw17%
Montecasillas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
2.34
Montecasillas
0.80

Unión Molinense creates 192% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Montecasillas
0.71

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Montecasillas
2.82

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Montecasillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
89%
Unión Molinense or Montecasillas
83%
Draw or Montecasillas
28%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
48%
Montecasillas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
90%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
67%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
41%
Montecasillas 1+ goals
55%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
19%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
86%
Montecasillas (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.34

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
72%
level
17%
Montecasillas scores more
11%

Unión Molinense at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 4–1 Montecasillas

Unión Molinense beat Montecasillas 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.