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Unión Molinense vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unión Molinense59%
×Draw23%
Balsicas Atlético18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.76
Balsicas Atlético
0.86

Unión Molinense creates 105% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
82%
Unión Molinense or Balsicas Atlético
77%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
41%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
33%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
83%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
52%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
26%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
58%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
21%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
76%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
59%
level
23%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
18%

Unión Molinense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 4–0 Balsicas Atlético

Unión Molinense beat Balsicas Atlético 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.