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Balsicas Atlético vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético33%
×Draw27%
Unión Molinense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.16
Unión Molinense
1.29

Unión Molinense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
61%
Balsicas Atlético or Unión Molinense
73%
Draw or Unión Molinense
67%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
14%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
69%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
32%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
11%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
72%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
37%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
46%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
33%
level
27%
Unión Molinense scores more
39%

Unión Molinense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Unión Molinense

Unión Molinense beat Balsicas Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo in Cartagena.