Unión Molinense 2–1 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

Unión Molinense

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bala Azul

2/1/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unión Molinense54%

×Draw25%

Bala Azul21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión MolinenseExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.90

Unión Molinense

1.59

Bala Azul

0.90

Unión Molinense creates 77% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.87

creates per match

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Unión Molinense

1.87

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

Unión Molinense

0.90

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Bala Azul →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw

79%

Unión Molinense or Bala Azul

75%

Draw or Bala Azul

46%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

28%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

80%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

47%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

21%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

59%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

23%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

72%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unión Molinense scores more

54%

level

25%

Bala Azul scores more

21%

Unión Molinense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs Bala Azul

Unión Molinense beat Bala Azul 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.

Unión Molinense vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs Bala Azul