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Unión Molinense vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unión Molinense44%
×Draw27%
Atlético Pulpileño28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.36
Atlético Pulpileño
1.03

Unión Molinense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 93 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
72%
Unión Molinense or Atlético Pulpileño
73%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
56%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
74%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
39%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
44%
level
27%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
28%

Unión Molinense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Molinense vs Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Unión Molinense 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.