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Unión Molinense vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Águilas
Águilas
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Unión Molinense43%
×Draw28%
Águilas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Molinense
1.28
Águilas
1.00

Unión Molinense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 42 away

creates per match

Unión Molinense
1.87
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

Unión Molinense
0.90
Águilas
0.69

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw
71%
Unión Molinense or Águilas
72%
Draw or Águilas
57%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+
19%
Águilas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals
72%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
37%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
14%
Águilas 1+ goals
63%
Águilas 2+ goals
26%
Águilas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
60%
Águilas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Águilas attack 1.10 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unión Molinense scores more
43%
level
28%
Águilas scores more
29%

Unión Molinense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 0–1 Águilas

Águilas beat Unión Molinense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.