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Union Mertert vs Young Boys — Cup 2020

Union Mertert
Union Mertert
FT
0 – 3
Young Boys
Young Boys
9/10/2023CupCup · 1st RoundStade de la Sûre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Mertert8%
×Draw11%
Young Boys81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mertert
1.06
Young Boys
3.46

Young Boys creates 226% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Union Mertert
1.33
Young Boys
4.60

allows per match

Union Mertert
2.33
Young Boys
0.80

finishing

Union Mertert+0.00on par
Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mertert ↓

Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Union Mertert or draw
19%
Union Mertert or Young Boys
89%
Draw or Young Boys
92%

Winning margin

Union Mertert wins by 2+
3%
Young Boys wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Union Mertert 1+ goals
65%
Union Mertert 2+ goals
29%
Union Mertert 3+ goals
9%
Young Boys 1+ goals
97%
Young Boys 2+ goals
85%
Young Boys 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Union Mertert (draw refunded)
9%
Young Boys (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mertert at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Young Boys away — creates 4.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mertert attack 1.33 + Young Boys defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Young Boys attack 4.60 + Union Mertert defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Union Mertert scores more
8%
level
11%
Young Boys scores more
81%

Young Boys at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Union Mertert 0–3 Young Boys

Young Boys beat Union Mertert 3-0 in Cup on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Sûre in Wasserbillig.