Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Mertert vs Schifflange — Cup 2020

Union Mertert
Union Mertert
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Schifflange
Schifflange
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade de la Sûre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Mertert20%
×Draw19%
Schifflange62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mertert
1.35
Schifflange
2.48

Schifflange creates 84% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Union Mertert
1.33
Schifflange
2.63

allows per match

Union Mertert
2.33
Schifflange
1.38

finishing

Union Mertert+0.00on par
Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mertert ↓

Schifflange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Union Mertert or draw
38%
Union Mertert or Schifflange
81%
Draw or Schifflange
80%

Winning margin

Union Mertert wins by 2+
8%
Schifflange wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Union Mertert 1+ goals
74%
Union Mertert 2+ goals
39%
Union Mertert 3+ goals
15%
Schifflange 1+ goals
92%
Schifflange 2+ goals
70%
Schifflange 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Union Mertert (draw refunded)
24%
Schifflange (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mertert at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Schifflange away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mertert attack 1.33 + Schifflange defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Schifflange attack 2.63 + Union Mertert defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Mertert scores more
20%
level
19%
Schifflange scores more
62%

Schifflange at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Union Mertert 0–3 Schifflange

Schifflange beat Union Mertert 3-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Sûre in Wasserbillig.