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Union Mauer vs Wiener Viktoria — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Union Mauer
Union Mauer
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
P. Haupl 7'
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Mauer39%
×Draw22%
Wiener Viktoria38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mauer
1.76
Wiener Viktoria
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Union Mauer
1.33
Wiener Viktoria
2.45

allows per match

Union Mauer
1.00
Wiener Viktoria
2.18

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par
Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

Wiener Viktoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw
62%
Union Mauer or Wiener Viktoria
78%
Draw or Wiener Viktoria
61%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+
20%
Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals
83%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
52%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
26%
Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
82%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
52%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)
51%
Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 2.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 1.33 + Wiener Viktoria defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Wiener Viktoria attack 2.45 + Union Mauer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Mauer scores more
39%
level
22%
Wiener Viktoria scores more
38%

Union Mauer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. Haupl
Union
Wiener
F. Sattler
Manager: F. Sattler
T. Polster
Manager: T. Polster

Friendlies Clubs: Union Mauer 1–0 Wiener Viktoria

Union Mauer beat Wiener Viktoria 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.

Goals: P. Haupl (7').