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Union Mauer vs Vorwärts Brigittenau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Union Mauer
Union Mauer
FT
3 – 0
Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
3/16/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Sportplatz Union Mauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Union Mauer69%
×Draw18%
Vorwärts Brigittenau13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mauer
2.38
Vorwärts Brigittenau
0.95

Union Mauer creates 151% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

creates per match

Union Mauer
2.45
Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.04

allows per match

Union Mauer
0.86
Vorwärts Brigittenau
2.32

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par
Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

Vorwärts Brigittenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw
87%
Union Mauer or Vorwärts Brigittenau
82%
Draw or Vorwärts Brigittenau
31%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+
46%
Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals
91%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
68%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
42%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
61%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
25%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)
84%
Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.86 · 58 matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.32 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 2.45 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.38

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.04 + Union Mauer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Union Mauer scores more
69%
level
18%
Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
13%

Union Mauer at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Union Mauer 3–0 Vorwärts Brigittenau

Union Mauer beat Vorwärts Brigittenau 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Mauer in Wien.