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Union Mauer vs Austria XIII — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Union Mauer
Union Mauer
FT
4 – 0
Austria XIII
Austria XIII
9/24/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 6Sportplatz Union Mauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Union Mauer60%
×Draw20%
Austria XIII20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mauer
2.19
Austria XIII
1.19

Union Mauer creates 84% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 75 away

creates per match

Union Mauer
2.45
Austria XIII
1.52

allows per match

Union Mauer
0.86
Austria XIII
1.93

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par
Austria XIII+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

Austria XIII →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw
80%
Union Mauer or Austria XIII
80%
Draw or Austria XIII
40%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+
37%
Austria XIII wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals
89%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
64%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
37%
Austria XIII 1+ goals
70%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
33%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)
75%
Austria XIII (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.86 · 58 matches

Austria XIII away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.93 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 2.45 + Austria XIII defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.19

Austria XIII attack 1.52 + Union Mauer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Union Mauer scores more
60%
level
20%
Austria XIII scores more
20%

Union Mauer at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Union Mauer 4–0 Austria XIII

Union Mauer beat Austria XIII 4-0 in Landesliga - Wien on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Mauer in Wien.