Union Mauer 3–0 ASV 13: Result & Stats

Union Mauer

FT

3 – 0

ASV 13

4/30/2022

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 23Sportplatz Union Mauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Union Mauer72%

×Draw16%

ASV 1312%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MauerExpected goals in this matchASV 13

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.05

Union Mauer

2.71

ASV 13

1.05

Union Mauer creates 158% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

2.45

creates per match

1.25

0.86

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Union Mauer

2.45

ASV 13

1.25

allows per match

Union Mauer

0.86

ASV 13

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par

ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

ASV 13 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw

88%

Union Mauer or ASV 13

84%

Draw or ASV 13

28%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+

51%

ASV 13 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals

93%

Union Mauer 2+ goals

75%

Union Mauer 3+ goals

50%

ASV 13 1+ goals

65%

ASV 13 2+ goals

28%

ASV 13 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)

85%

ASV 13 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.86 · 58 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 2.45 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.71

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Union Mauer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Union Mauer scores more

72%

level

16%

ASV 13 scores more

12%

Union Mauer at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff