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Union Magdalena vs Tigres FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tigres FC
Tigres FC
3/21/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Magdalena52%
×Draw28%
Tigres FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.40
Tigres FC
0.75

Union Magdalena creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.63
Tigres FC
0.50

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.00
Tigres FC
1.17

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Tigres FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
80%
Union Magdalena or Tigres FC
72%
Draw or Tigres FC
48%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
26%
Tigres FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
75%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
41%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
17%
Tigres FC 1+ goals
53%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
17%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
72%
Tigres FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.63 + Tigres FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tigres FC attack 0.50 + Union Magdalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
52%
level
28%
Tigres FC scores more
20%

Union Magdalena at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Union Magdalena 2–1 Tigres FC

Union Magdalena beat Tigres FC 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.