Union Magdalena 0–2 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Fe

A. Estupiñán 90+6' (pen)

W. Morelo 61' (pen)

9/25/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Union Magdalena36%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Union Magdalena

1.19

Santa Fe

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 127 away

1.08

creates per match

1.14

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.08

Santa Fe

1.14

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.25

Santa Fe

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

64%

Union Magdalena or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

64%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

15%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

70%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

33%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

12%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

70%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

33%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

50%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.30 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.08 + Santa Fe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Santa Fe attack 1.14 + Union Magdalena defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

36%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

36%

Union Magdalena at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

W. Morelo

Santa Fe · F

7.6

Match Events

18'

J. Silva← L. Castellanos

45+4'

Jonathan Barboza

46'

C. Lizarazo← N. Moreno

46'

A. Estupiñán← M. Mier

50'

José Aja

61'

W. MoreloPenalty

62'

J. Lloreda← D. Chávez

62'

67'

69'

73'

76'

77'

F. Stable← R. Márquez

80'

Jonathan Barboza

82'

José Enamorado

82'

A. Moralez← J. Enamorado

90+3'

Johnathan Lopera

90+4'

Wilson MoreloPenalty awarded

90+1'

J. Herrera← C. Lizarazo

90+6'

A. EstupiñánPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionSanta

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

4Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots10

0On Target3

8Off Target5

2Blocked2

3Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

315Total Passes393

240Accurate Passes315

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

7Offsides0