Union Magdalena 3–4 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Union Magdalena

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Jaguares

R. Márquez 87', 50', 45+2'

D. Ojeda 90+1', 42'

Rafhael Lucas 37', 8'

1/26/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Union Magdalena48%

×Draw27%

Jaguares25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.95

Union Magdalena

1.41

Jaguares

0.95

Union Magdalena creates 48% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 136 away

1.14

creates per match

0.67

1.23

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.14

Jaguares

0.67

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.23

Jaguares

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

75%

Union Magdalena or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

52%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

23%

Jaguares wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

76%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

41%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

17%

Jaguares 1+ goals

61%

Jaguares 2+ goals

25%

Jaguares 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

65%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.68 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Jaguares defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

48%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

25%

Union Magdalena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Márquez

Union Magdalena · F

9.2

Match Events

8'

Rafhael Lucas

32'

M. Cortés← O. García

37'

Rafhael Lucas↳ F. Mosquera

40'

Juan Zuluaga

42'

D. Ojeda↳ H. Mojica

45+2'

R. Márquez↳ L. Mosquera

46'

H. Luna← L. Mosquera

46'

J. Valencia← F. Cantillo

50'

R. Márquez↳ H. Luna

58'

Maurício Cortés

61'

E. Restrepo← D. Rentería

70'

Rafhael Lucas

73'

J. Obregón← Rafhael Lucas

87'

R. Márquez↳ C. Subero

88'

Ricardo Márquez

89'

Harrison Mojica

90'

Julio Murillo

90+1'

D. Ojeda↳ F. Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionJaguares

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots15

10Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots15

8On Target6

5Off Target6

5Blocked3

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

415Total Passes247

347Accurate Passes181

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0